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General information
Walmart Inc. operates discount stores, supercenters, and neighborhood markets. The Company offers merchandise such as apparel, house wares, small appliances, electronics, musical instruments, books, home improvement, shoes, jewelry, toddler, games, household essentials, pets, pharmaceutical products, party supplies, and automotive tools. Walmart serves customers worldwide.
  • Pretty weak financial results growth rate 2.1% (average between last period year over year growth for revenue and EBITDA), are preserved at an average historical level (2.1%)
  • Dividend yield for the last twelve months 1.5%
  • Free cash flow yield 4.7% (LTM)
  • Share price is 70.0% higher than minimum and 5.2% lower than maximum for the last 3 years
  • The company is overvalued by EV / LTM EBITDA multiple compared to target level (13.8x vs 12.2x)
  • Fundamental value created in LTM (estimate) 3.2%
Key Financials
Ticker: WMT
Share price, USD: 140.04
Common stocks: 2 837 174 936

Dividend Yield:  1.5%
FCF Yield LTM: 4.7%
EV / LTM EBITDA: 13.8x
Last revenue growth (y/y):  5.6%
Last growth of EBITDA (y/y):  -1.5%
Historical revenue growth:  3.4%
Historical growth of EBITDA:  0.8%
Target EV / EBITDA (hist 75% percentile): 12.2x
Fundamental value created in LTM: 3.2%
EV / LTM EBITDA mutiple calculation
Market Cap ($m): 397 318
Net Debt ($m): 58 475
EV (Enterprise Value): 455 793
EBITDA LTM ($m): 33 128
EV / LTM EBITDA: 13.8x

Revenue and EBITDA

Quarterly values ($m)

Change (y/y)

Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow ($m)

Net Debt / Cash and Equivalents ($m)

Share price and dividends

Share price

Payment USD per share

Multiple and potential

EV / LTM EBITDA and 75% percentile

Potential dynamics

Value Creation

Fundamental Value Creation is calculated as ratio of value created in the last period to current market cap of the company.

The fundamental value can be created in two ways:
• cash generation in form of dividend payments or debt reduction or share buybacks
growth of the company enterprise value through improving financial results

The growth of enterprise value in the last period is estimated as product of:
• annualized increase of EBITDA in the last reporting period year over year
• relevant EV/EBITDA multiple (average between actual EV/EBITDA for the company and average general level of 10.0x is applied)

Parameter
#
Formula
Value
    
    
            EBITDA (pre LTM Q)
(1)
8 966
            EBITDA (last Q)
(2)
8 830
            EBITDA LTM
(3)
33 128
    
    
        EBITDA LTM / last Q
(4)
(3) / (2)
3.752
    Gain of EBITDA (mln $)
(5)
( (2)-(1) ) * (4)
-510
    
    
            EV
(6)
457 325
        Mult
(7)
(6) / (3)
13.8x
        Mult common
(8)
const
10.0x
    Mult avg
(9)
avgerage
11.9x
    
    
    Equity+
(10)
(5) * (9)
-6 073
    FCF LTM
(11)
18 851
    
    
Value+
(12)
(10) + (11)
12 778
Cap
(13)
397 318
    
    
Fundamental value creation
(14)
(12) / (13)
3.2%

Potential

EBITDA LTM       33 128
 
EBITDA E       32 964
Mult aim       12.2x
 
EV E       400 637
NetDebt corr       53 758
 
Cap E       346 880
Cap       397 318
Growth potential            -12.7%