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International commodity companies - Target portfolio structure 

Company
Price
Day
change
Week
change
Target
share
Express
potential
Impala Platinum
9.99
 -1.1%
 -6.2%
21.2%
168.5%  (+1.1%)
Barrick Gold
27.07
 -0.1%
 0.0%
20.1%
159.9%  (-3.1%)
Sibanye-Stillwater
12.15
 -1.1%
 +0.9%
16.3%
129.4%  (-6.4%)
CF Industries
26.16
 -2.5%
 -6.8%
14.9%
118.7%  (+3.7%)
Vale
11.04
 -0.9%
 -0.5%
13.4%
106.7%  (+1.7%)
AngloGold Ashanti
24.70
 +1.0%
 -6.3%
9.0%
71.5%  (-1.3%)
Anglo American Platinum
12.50
 -2.3%
 -11.3%
5.0%
39.8%  (+2.2%)

The strategy calculates how much profit (on EBITDA level) each company is probably earning at the moment
 
It takes into account real-time changes in market environment (production prices, currencies, etc)
 
The most undervalued companies in terms of multiples of company value and mark-to-market earnings are included into target portfolio

Introduction to the strategy with rationale and backtesting results can be found through the link


 

Actual Performance

Portfolio (USD) and S&P500
dynamics

PeriodStrategyS&P500

Day -0.5%-0.8%

Week -3.0%-2.0%

Since inception (2020-05-31) +30.4%+10.6%

Portfolio (USD) and S&P500 dynamics (%)

International commodity companies 

Company
Price and
change
Year div-d yield
FCF Yield LTM
Last growth
Revenue/EBITDA
AVG growth
last/hist
EV /
LTM
EBITDA
(exp)  

(p75)
Express
potential
Next GAAP report
Gold
Newmont Mining
61.65 USD (+2.2%)
1.3%
7.6% 
4.8% /
88.6%
46.7% /
35.6%
11.3x
9.6x
12.0x
25.7%  (-1.3%)
..
Barrick Gold
27.07 USD (-0.1%)
1.0%
-7.0% 
48.1% /
85.5%
66.8% /
19.2%
5.7x
5.2x
12.0x
159.9%  (-3.1%)
..
Kinross Gold
8.75 USD (+2.8%)
0.3%
2.6% 
20.2% /
64.2%
42.2% /
22.0%
6.0x
5.1x
6.2x
24.5%  (-1.4%)
..
AngloGold Ashanti
24.7 USD (+1.0%)
0.3%
0.1% 
7.5% /
67.1%
37.3% /
10.5%
7.8x
6.2x
10.1x
71.5%  (-1.3%)
..
Sibanye-Stillwater
12.15 USD (-1.1%)
0.8%
8.7% 
101.0% /
200.0%
150.5% /
53.8%
4.6x
3.9x
7.5x
129.4%  (-6.4%)
..
Platinum
Anglo American Platinum
12.5 USD (-2.3%)
2.6%
7.0% 
9.8% /
-11.6%
-0.9% /
39.2%
9.9x
8.4x
12.0x
39.8%  (+2.2%)
..
Impala Platinum
9.985 USD (-1.1%)
3.8%
19.2% 
43.2% /
200.0%
121.6% /
48.8%
4.8x
4.1x
11.8x
168.5%  (+1.1%)
..
Mining
BHP Billiton
49.74 USD (-1.2%)
4.8%
2.4% 
-12.4% /
-20.5%
-16.5% /
6.1%
6.4x
5.8x
7.1x
25.2%  (+0.0%)
..
Rio Tinto
57.95 USD (-0.6%)
6.7%
9.0% 
-6.6% /
7.7%
0.6% /
4.7%
6.4x
5.3x
6.5x
23.8%  (+0.1%)
..
Vale
11.04 USD (-0.9%)
4.9%
12.5% 
-18.0% /
3.3%
-7.4% /
2.6%
7.2x
3.6x
7.4x
106.7%  (+1.7%)
..
China Shenhua
16.65 CNY (-0.5%)
0.0%
6.7% 
-10.4% /
-10.7%
-10.6% /
9.5%
4.1x
10.4x
4.5x
<-50%  (+0.2%)
..
Anglo American PLC
18.924 GBP (-2.4%)
4.6%
-4.4% 
-15.6% /
-37.3%
-26.5% /
6.6%
6.3x
4.6x
5.2x
16.1%  (+2.7%)
..
Alcoa
13.03 USD (+0.2%)
0.0%
12.8% 
-20.8% /
34.0%
6.6% /
5.3%
8.4x
n/a
7.4x
n/a            
..
Steel
Nucor Corporation
48.22 USD (-0.1%)
3.3%
4.1% 
-26.6% /
-43.7%
-35.2% /
4.2%
9.8x
n/a
9.0x
n/a            
..
U.S. Steel
10.07 USD (+4.8%)
0.8%
-89.8% 
-41.0% /
0.0%
-20.5% /
-3.8%
-7.6x
n/a
6.7x
n/a            
..
Chemistry
Mosaic Company
18.35 USD (+1.1%)
1.1%
6.7% 
-6.1% /
200.0%
97.0% /
11.0%
-100.3x
n/a
12.0x
n/a            
..
CF Industries
26.16 USD (-2.5%)
4.6%
18.5% 
-19.8% /
-31.2%
-25.5% /
23.0%
7.0x
7.7x
12.0x
118.7%  (+3.7%)
..

Market Attractiveness Index

Market Attractiveness Index calculated as average express-upside for TOP-5 global commodity companies with highest potential

High values of index (>30%), indicate favorable moments for additional cash contributions to the stock market / stock purchases

Current value of the Index is 137.1%
(good time to start investing)

Target portfolio structure