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Target portfolio (Russia, Moscow exchange)

Company
Price
Change
Potential
Change
Share
Commodity
96.0%
Русагро
755.4
-1.1%
347.8%
+1.1%
30.0%
Фосагро
2792
+0.8%
101.0%
+2.4%
23.7%
Петропавловск
27.355
+0.9%
95.0%
-0.4%
13.5%
Норникель
19150
-1.9%
77.0%
+0.9%
18.1%
Полиметалл
1770.3
+1.2%
45.9%
+1.4%
10.8%
B2C
to 75% LTM mult
24.0%
Лента
218.5
-0.8%
109.0%
+0.3%
10.2%
QIWI
1158.5
-0.9%
94.5%
+0.7%
8.9%
М.Видео
679.8
+0.2%
52.6%
0.0%
4.9%
 
Download table (CSV) Leverage:      20.0%
 

Target portfolio (including LSE)

Company
Price
Change
Potential
Change
Share
Commodity
96.0%
Русагро
755.4
-1.1%
347.8%
+1.1%
25.0%
Фосагро
2792
+0.8%
101.0%
+2.4%
16.8%
Петропавловск
27.355
+0.9%
95.0%
-0.4%
15.8%
Евраз
3.72
-1.5%
80.2%
+1.9%
13.4%
Норникель
19150
-1.9%
77.0%
+0.9%
12.8%
Полиметалл
1770.3
+1.2%
45.9%
+1.4%
7.6%
Highland Gold
2.996
-0.1%
27.6%
+0.4%
4.6%
B2C
to 75% LTM mult
24.0%
Лента
218.5
-0.8%
109.0%
+0.3%
8.8%
QIWI
1158.5
-0.9%
94.5%
+0.7%
7.6%
М.Видео
679.8
+0.2%
52.6%
0.0%
4.2%
Тинькофф
1964.8
+4.6%
14.0%
-0.4%
1.1%
Детский мир
114.46
-0.5%
11.9%
+0.4%
1.0%
Протек
99.6
0.0%
10.5%
+0.1%
0.8%
Магнит
4784
-0.3%
4.9%
0.0%
0.4%

Currently the portfolio is 80% commodity strategy:
 
The strategy calculates how much profit (on EBITDA level) each company is probably earning at the moment
 
It takes into account real-time changes in market environment (production prices, currencies, etc)
 
The most undervalued companies in terms of multiples of company value and mark-to-market earnings are included into target portfolio
 
Remaining 20% are the most attractive (under our frameworks) B2C companies in terms of financials growth trajectories and valuation combination

Actual Performance (RUB)

 

Period
Strategy
IMOEX
2015
+121.8%
+26.1%
2016
+54.3%
+26.8%
2017
+25.6%
-5.5%
2018
+29.6%
+12.3%
2019
+13.5%
+29.6%
2020
+11.3%
-9.3%
Annualized
+39.8%
+12.6%

USDRUB rate changed from 60.85 (2015-01-01) to 77.23 (now), devaluation amounted to 26.9%

Day
-0.4%
-0.8%
Week
-2.8%
-0.8%
Year to date
+11.3%
-9.3%
Since inception (2015-01-01)
+632.8%
+99.5%

Portfolio and Moscow Exchange Index dynamics (%)

Our track-record results are confirmed by the largest Russian brokers BCS (FinTarget) and Finam (Comon). We have over $1.5m own funds invested in the strategies and so fully share all the gains and losses with our clients / in this respect are fully committed to achieve the best possible results. We are ready to provide broker reports supporting traction per your request.

Free trial

Russian companies — Screener  (at USDRUB exchange rate: 77.23)

Company
Price and
change
Year div-d yield
FCF Yield LTM
Last growth
Revenue/EBITDA
AVG growth
last/hist
EV /
LTM
EBITDA
(exp)

(p75)
Express
potential
Next IFRS report
Operating results
Latest review
Oil & Gas
Лукойл
4123.5 (-2.4%)
9.6%
11.0% 
-53.6% /
-61.7%
-57.7% /
8.2%
3.6x
3.7x
4.2x
16.6%  (+0.3%)
2020-11-26
..
2019-12-01
Новатэк
1033.6 (-0.4%)
2.9%
2.5% 
-34.1% /
-67.1%
-50.6% /
5.4%
23.6x
n/a
15.6x
n/a            
2020-10-30
..
Metals
Северсталь
1062.8 (0.0%)
10.0%
3.8% 
1.4% /
-4.0%
-1.3% /
6.1%
6.5x
5.5x
5.6x
2.8%  (+0.2%)
2020-10-22
..
2019-12-04
Евраз
*3.72 (-1.5%)
12.4%
13.4% 
-13.4% /
-21.3%
-17.4% /
21.2%
6.9x
3.5x
5.4x
80.2%  (+1.9%)
..
2020-10-29
ММК
35.95 (-2.1%)
12.5%
10.7% 
-11.1% /
-26.0%
-18.6% /
-0.5%
4.6x
4.5x
4.2x
-7.0%  (-0.9%)
2020-10-22
..
2020-01-23
НЛМК
180.62 (+0.5%)
9.7%
4.9% 
-1.2% /
1.1%
0.0% /
8.2%
7.9x
5.8x
6.2x
9.2%  (+0.9%)
..
..
2019-12-26
Русал
31.685 (-2.6%)
0.0%
22.3% 
-9.4% /
-58.2%
-33.8% /
-1.1%
9.3x
3.9x
7.9x
173.5%  (-1.0%)
..
2020-10-27
2020-03-16
ТМК
59.54 (-1.6%)
5.0%
82.1% 
-15.0% /
-31.5%
-23.3% /
3.1%
5.4x
n/a
6.8x
n/a            
..
..
2020-04-23
Mining
Норникель
19150 (-1.9%)
6.1%
5.2% 
13.9% /
13.2%
13.6% /
29.6%
6.9x
5.2x
8.3x
77.0%  (+0.9%)
..
2020-10-31
2020-07-02
Highland Gold
*2.996 (-0.1%)
1.0%
4.0% 
18.8% /
20.2%
19.5% /
21.4%
8.2x
5.7x
7.3x
27.6%  (+0.4%)
..
..
Полюс
16499 (+2.2%)
2.9%
6.2% 
45.2% /
60.1%
52.7% /
26.3%
11.9x
9.0x
9.4x
5.0%  (+0.2%)
2020-11-05
2020-10-22
2020-04-27
Петропавловск
27.355 (+0.9%)
0.0%
0.8% 
84.6% /
27.7%
56.2% /
31.6%
7.1x
4.5x
7.7x
95.0%  (-0.4%)
..
2020-10-22
2020-07-29
Полиметалл
1770.3 (+1.2%)
4.2%
0.0% 
28.0% /
62.5%
45.3% /
22.9%
11.4x
7.7x
10.7x
45.9%  (+1.4%)
..
2020-10-22
2020-04-27
Селигдар
43.78 (-1.8%)
5.0%
-18.4% 
37.5% /
200.0%
118.8% /
50.0%
6.0x
4.0x
6.5x
113.2%  (+1.1%)
2020-12-28
..
2019-12-29
Chemistry
Акрон
6132 (0.0%)
8.7%
5.5% 
-8.4% /
-33.3%
-20.9% /
10.0%
10.9x
8.5x
8.8x
2.7%  (+1.4%)
2020-11-27
..
Фосагро
2792 (+0.8%)
6.3%
4.0% 
3.1% /
11.0%
7.1% /
13.2%
6.9x
4.5x
7.7x
101.0%  (+2.4%)
2020-11-25
2020-10-24
2020-05-14
Food & Agro
Русагро
755.4 (-1.1%)
5.1%
-8.2% 
-7.4% /
47.7%
20.2% /
32.5%
6.4x
2.5x
8.1x
>200%  (+1.1%)
2020-11-16
..
2020-05-27
Transportation
ГлобалТранс
*6.01 (-2.3%)
11.6%
1.8% 
-25.0% /
-28.2%
-26.6% /
11.1%
3.3x
10.6x
4.9x
<-50%  (-0.3%)
..
..
2020-02-02
ОВК
175.1 (-0.7%)
0.0%
48.5% 
-21.8% /
2.9%
-9.5% /
11.4%
9.0x
n/a
15.0x
n/a            
..
..
Retail
Детский мир
114.46 (-0.5%)
9.2%
-1.1% 
13.4% /
20.0%
16.7% /
16.1%
7.3x
n/a
7.8x
11.9%  (+0.4%)
2020-11-02
..
2020-03-03
X5 Retail Group
2825 (-2.0%)
3.9%
0.6% 
12.9% /
14.4%
13.7% /
16.8%
7.6x
n/a
7.1x
n/a            
2020-10-22
..
2020-04-27
Лента
218.5 (-0.8%)
0.0%
21.1% 
8.9% /
36.7%
22.8% /
8.5%
4.6x
n/a
6.6x
109.0%  (+0.3%)
..
..
2020-07-29
Магнит
4784 (-0.3%)
9.4%
1.7% 
13.7% /
25.3%
19.5% /
3.8%
7.3x
n/a
6.7x
4.9%  (0.0%)
2020-10-29
2020-10-29
2020-05-05
М.Видео
679.8 (+0.2%)
4.4%
15.6% 
7.9% /
33.4%
20.7% /
32.7%
5.5x
n/a
6.2x
n/a            
..
2020-10-27
2020-05-31
Протек
99.6 (0.0%)
0.0%
7.1% 
6.8% /
41.2%
24.0% /
1.2%
5.0x
n/a
5.0x
10.5%  (+0.1%)
..
..
IT
Mail.ru Group
*27.75 (-3.8%)
0.0%
-1.1% 
26.6% /
3.5%
15.1% /
22.7%
15.6x
n/a
17.4x
n/a            
2020-10-24
..
2020-03-03
QIWI
1158.5 (-0.9%)
6.0%
-3.3% 
5.7% /
63.9%
34.8% /
38.1%
6.6x
n/a
11.2x
n/a            
2020-11-20
..
2020-09-08
Яндекс
4600.8 (+2.1%)
0.0%
7.7% 
0.0% /
-42.9%
-21.5% /
25.9%
35.0x
n/a
28.1x
n/a            
2020-10-25
..
2020-07-29
Banking
P/E:
Мосбиржа
141.18 (+0.2%)
5.6%
--- 
7.7% /
6.8%
7.3% /
4.9%
13.7x
n/a
13.3x
n/a            
2020-11-08
..
Сбербанк
207.7 (-1.6%)
9.0%
--- 
7.9% /
-33.2%
-12.7% /
5.9%
7.3x
n/a
7.0x
n/a            
2020-10-29
..
2020-05-05
Тинькофф
1964.8 (+4.6%)
2.1%
--- 
38.6% /
24.7%
31.7% /
45.3%
9.4x
n/a
10.3x
n/a            
2020-11-27
..
2020-05-13
Telecom
МТС
316.2 (-0.3%)
13.5%
16.2% 
-5.9% /
4.2%
-0.9% /
5.7%
4.4x
n/a
4.6x
n/a            
2020-11-07
..
2020-03-14
Building
Группа ЛСР
903.4 (-1.3%)
5.5%
4.0% 
3.2% /
13.1%
8.2% /
7.2%
6.3x
n/a
5.3x
n/a            
..
..
2020-03-21
Группа ПИК
576.2 (-1.4%)
3.9%
-11.2% 
33.7% /
61.2%
47.5% /
76.3%
6.6x
n/a
11.4x
n/a            
..
..
Company
Price and
change
Year div-d yield
FCF Yield LTM
Last growth
Revenue/EBITDA
AVG growth
last/hist
EV /
LTM
EBITDA
(exp)  

(p75)
Express
potential
Next IFRS report
Operating results
Latest review
State
Башнефть
1551 (-0.8%)
7.0%
47.0% 
-43.7% /
-87.4%
-65.6% /
0.9%
4.2x
n/a
3.2x
n/a            
..
..
Газпром
159.21 (-1.8%)
9.6%
-34.1% 
-34.8% /
-70.9%
-52.9% /
6.1%
6.6x
n/a
4.1x
n/a            
..
..
Роснефть
372.5 (-0.5%)
4.9%
-5.9% 
-50.7% /
-71.0%
-60.9% /
13.1%
6.0x
n/a
6.0x
n/a            
..
..
Газпром нефть
276 (-1.7%)
13.8%
8.1% 
-36.6% /
-62.9%
-49.8% /
8.8%
4.8x
n/a
4.6x
n/a            
..
..
Татнефть
420.5 (-2.2%)
2.4%
7.9% 
-38.7% /
-55.6%
-47.2% /
12.6%
5.7x
n/a
7.5x
n/a            
..
..
Алроса
74.46 (+0.4%)
8.7%
3.7% 
-81.9% /
0.0%
-41.0% /
-13.3%
9.3x
7.0x
5.9x
-19.7%  (+1.3%)
..
..
Аэрофлот
57.58 (-1.5%)
0.0%
-147.6% 
-85.3% /
0.0%
-42.7% /
-2.2%
6.4x
n/a
7.1x
n/a            
..
..
Ростелеком
93.83 (-1.4%)
5.3%
-82.4% 
58.8% /
82.6%
70.7% /
14.8%
5.2x
n/a
4.4x
n/a            
..
..
ФСК ЕЭС
0.18914 (+0.3%)
14.3%
16.9% 
-2.4% /
-9.7%
-6.1% /
8.1%
3.1x
n/a
3.2x
n/a            
..
..
2020-03-03
Русгидро
0.7247 (+0.2%)
4.9%
8.0% 
6.8% /
68.3%
37.6% /
-5.9%
7.1x
n/a
7.2x
n/a            
..
..
Интер РАО
5.177 (-0.5%)
3.8%
12.2% 
-12.3% /
-37.6%
-25.0% /
12.3%
2.5x
n/a
2.8x
n/a            
..
..
МРСК Центра
0.3 (-1.2%)
6.7%
44.0% 
0.7% /
11.0%
5.9% /
3.5%
2.7x
n/a
3.1x
n/a            
..
..
МРСК ЦП
0.2212 (-0.5%)
7.4%
128.1% 
-3.5% /
-18.7%
-11.1% /
-2.5%
2.7x
n/a
2.5x
n/a            
..
..
МРСК Сибири
0.2995 (+1.7%)
1.0%
-13.2% 
4.1% /
167.1%
85.6% /
8.2%
8.0x
n/a
7.4x
n/a            
..
..
МРСК Урала
0.1334 (-0.4%)
7.9%
-6.7% 
-25.4% /
-7.6%
-16.5% /
15.3%
2.3x
n/a
3.0x
n/a            
..
..
МРСК Волги
0.0687 (-3.0%)
9.4%
-19.5% 
-7.7% /
-96.0%
-51.9% /
-7.1%
2.4x
n/a
2.0x
n/a            
..
..
МРСК Юга
0.0457 (-0.1%)
0.0%
-16.6% 
-0.6% /
-44.7%
-22.7% /
-0.5%
4.9x
n/a
5.0x
n/a            
..
..
МРСК СЗ
0.05 (+0.5%)
6.5%
20.1% 
-5.1% /
-52.5%
-28.8% /
9.8%
3.2x
n/a
8.8x
n/a            
..
..
Мосэнерго
2.0525 (+0.1%)
5.9%
5.2% 
-9.8% /
98.8%
44.5% /
2.2%
3.9x
n/a
3.8x
n/a            
..
..
ОГК-2
0.7099 (-2.6%)
7.7%
-5.3% 
-18.2% /
-21.7%
-20.0% /
0.2%
3.7x
n/a
3.7x
n/a            
..
..
Россети
1.4515 (-1.6%)
6.1%
15.7% 
-6.3% /
-22.4%
-14.4% /
0.5%
4.1x
n/a
3.7x
n/a            
..
..
ТГК-1
0.01103 (+1.6%)
9.4%
23.9% 
-6.0% /
14.4%
4.2% /
11.0%
3.0x
n/a
3.4x
n/a            
..
..
КамАЗ
60.5 (-1.1%)
0.0%
14.8% 
9.2% /
200.0%
104.6% /
17.6%
8.7x
n/a
14.4x
n/a            
..
..
НМТП
7.98 (-0.7%)
16.9%
6.2% 
-18.5% /
-22.2%
-20.4% /
-1.4%
4.6x
n/a
5.3x
n/a            
..
..

Market Attractiveness Index

Market Attractiveness Index calculated as average express-upside for TOP-5 russian commodity companies with highest potential

High values of index (>30%), indicate favorable moments for additional cash contributions to the stock market / stock purchases

Current value of the Index is 149.9%
(good time to start investing)

Последние аналитические обзоры

2020-09-28
Модификация стратегии Rising Stars
2020-09-26
Запись нового вебинара Усиленные Инвестиции
2020-09-08
QIWI: потенциал роста стоимости на фоне сильных финансовых показателей, восстановления мультипликатора и неплохой див. доходности
2020-07-29
Яндекс слабо отчитался за 2й квартал 2020
2020-07-29
По Петропавловску цена акций продолжает активный рост. 10 августа пройдет собрание акционеров, на котором будет ясно кто победит и возьмет верх над советом директоров
2020-07-29
Лента опубликовала сильный отчет за 1П 2020
2020-07-02
Норильский Никель: считаем что компания перепродана. На фоне роста цен на продукцию и курса $ потенциал увеличивается
2020-06-30
В Петропавловске корпоративный конфликт