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Eastern European companies

Eastern European companies — Screener  (at USDRUB exchange rate: 72.98)

Company / category
Price and
change
Year div-d yield
FCF Yield LTM
Last growth
Revenue/EBITDA
AVG growth
last/hist
EV /
LTM
EBITDA
(exp)

(p75)
Express
potential
Next IFRS report
Operating results
Oil & Gas
Лукойл
6702 (+1.5%)
3.9%
7.2% 
123.2% /
191.5%
157.4% /
14.8%
4.3x
..
..
Нижнекамскнеф-м
147.05 (+7.8%)
7.0%
-10.4% 
73.1% /
161.6%
117.4% /
18.9%
6.2x
..
..
Новатэк
1913.6 (+4.2%)
2.7%
0.9% 
83.7% /
200.0%
141.9% /
22.0%
21.2x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Metallurgy
Северсталь
1561 (+2.6%)
13.1%
11.4% 
89.9% /
200.0%
145.0% /
20.4%
4.6x
..
..
Евраз
*5.814 (+3.4%)
7.9%
9.2% 
32.3% /
131.7%
82.0% /
13.0%
4.9x
..
..
ММК
78.33 (+4.3%)
11.1%
9.3% 
163.1% /
200.0%
181.6% /
17.8%
4.0x
..
..
Мечел
147.22 (+15.5%)
0.0%
7.8% 
71.6% /
200.0%
135.8% /
3.1%
5.3x
..
..
НЛМК
220.82 (+3.2%)
15.9%
9.2% 
95.2% /
200.0%
147.6% /
23.4%
4.2x
..
..
Русал
73.52 (+3.1%)
0.0%
11.6% 
44.8% /
109.0%
76.9% /
28.7%
7.4x
..
..
ТМК
96.6 (+6.9%)
31.4%
-138.0% 
92.7% /
93.4%
93.1% /
3.3%
11.2x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Mining
Норникель
23150 (+2.2%)
7.1%
14.5% 
42.0% /
200.0%
121.0% /
42.7%
5.0x
..
..
Полюс
12735.5 (-0.2%)
5.1%
8.9% 
9.9% /
9.9%
9.9% /
36.7%
7.0x
..
..
Петропавловск
21.375 (-0.7%)
0.0%
-1.2% 
-28.2% /
-32.9%
-30.6% /
58.1%
5.9x
2021-10-30
..
Полиметалл
1336.8 (+0.4%)
7.5%
4.6% 
19.7% /
16.2%
18.0% /
36.0%
6.0x
..
..
Селигдар
43.85 (-0.3%)
10.3%
-4.2% 
9.9% /
31.7%
20.8% /
55.6%
4.9x
..
..
Trans-Siberian Gold
*1.175 (0.0%)
6.6%
13.2% 
80.1% /
200.0%
140.1% /
59.3%
3.8x
2021-09-29
..
Chemistry
Акрон
7018 (0.0%)
0.9%
7.4% 
65.9% /
200.0%
133.0% /
27.4%
6.1x
..
..
Фосагро
5145 (+2.6%)
8.7%
7.5% 
48.0% /
94.9%
71.5% /
24.7%
6.6x
..
..
Food & Agro
Русагро
1150.2 (-0.7%)
12.5%
-1.6% 
42.1% /
57.3%
49.7% /
48.0%
5.1x
..
..
Рус-Аква
479 (+0.7%)
2.7%
0.6% 
-25.9% /
-99.1%
-62.5% /
39.2%
17.5x
n/a
..
..
Черкизово
3219 (+3.1%)
8.3%
-1.0% 
30.8% /
21.2%
26.0% /
20.9%
7.5x
..
..
Transportation
Global Ports
*3.64 (+1.1%)
0.0%
14.9% 
32.9% /
15.2%
24.1% /
28.5%
5.7x
n/a
..
..
ГлобалТранс
*7.6 (+2.6%)
9.2%
-17.7% 
-9.4% /
-28.0%
-18.7% /
-6.2%
5.8x
..
..
Retail
Детский мир
131.02 (+0.7%)
8.5%
5.7% 
29.7% /
55.3%
42.5% /
19.0%
6.3x
n/a
..
..
X5 Retail
2316 (-0.3%)
7.9%
2.7% 
10.7% /
6.5%
8.6% /
14.9%
5.9x
n/a
..
..
Лента
221 (-0.5%)
0.0%
16.0% 
0.5% /
-16.8%
-8.2% /
6.4%
3.8x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Мать и дитя
852.9 (+0.6%)
4.3%
-0.2% 
50.6% /
66.4%
58.5% /
21.4%
8.8x
n/a
..
..
Магнит
5655.5 (+0.6%)
8.7%
13.7% 
9.6% /
-0.7%
4.5% /
10.9%
6.2x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
М.Видео
601.9 (-0.1%)
11.3%
-8.4% 
22.3% /
-8.1%
7.1% /
12.5%
6.3x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
IT
Head Hunter
3780 (+2.2%)
0.0%
-0.8% 
42.8% /
49.3%
46.1% /
21.8%
47.9x
n/a
..
..
Mail.ru Group
1537.8 (+0.2%)
0.0%
-8.9% 
17.4% /
-10.5%
3.5% /
18.3%
12.9x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
OZON
3708 (+0.7%)
0.0%
-0.0% 
90.3% /
0.0%
45.2% /
38.4%
-46.0x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
QIWI
607.5 (+2.1%)
14.3%
53.8% 
6.9% /
-5.4%
0.8% /
36.4%
1.5x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Яндекс
5755 (-0.3%)
0.0%
-2.7% 
96.6% /
-78.5%
9.1% /
23.7%
58.7x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Banking
P/E:
Банк Санкт-Петербург
74.07 (+1.2%)
10.7%
--- 
41.7% /
141.7%
91.7% /
17.9%
2.4x
n/a
..
..
Мосбиржа
179.31 (-1.3%)
5.3%
--- 
7.2% /
15.8%
11.5% /
10.6%
15.7x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Сбербанк
327.8 (+1.4%)
11.4%
--- 
27.4% /
95.1%
61.3% /
15.6%
6.7x
n/a
..
..
Тинькофф
6681 (-0.1%)
0.8%
--- 
27.4% /
57.7%
42.6% /
35.2%
24.1x
n/a
..
..
ВТБ Банк
0.050815 (+1.5%)
4.3%
--- 
36.9% /
200.0%
118.5% /
13.8%
3.3x
n/a
..
..
Telecom
МТС
328 (-0.1%)
11.3%
-1.4% 
9.2% /
12.1%
10.7% /
5.7%
4.6x
n/a
..
..
VEON
*2.13 (+0.9%)
7.0%
0.2% 
11.9% /
12.3%
12.1% /
6.5%
3.9x
n/a
..
..
Building
Эталон
125.4 (+2.5%)
9.6%
-13.0% 
31.0% /
150.1%
90.6% /
90.6%
4.0x
n/a
..
..
Группа ЛСР
759.4 (+1.0%)
7.8%
-31.9% 
14.0% /
62.3%
38.2% /
4.7%
4.7x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Группа ПИК
1500 (+0.2%)
4.5%
-13.9% 
36.6% /
47.6%
42.1% /
47.5%
12.3x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Самолет
5639.2 (-0.2%)
1.5%
-2.2% 
35.3% /
157.2%
96.3% /
59.4%
41.8x
n/a
n/a            
2021-09-20
..
Energy
Энел Россия
0.845 (+0.6%)
10.1%
-28.1% 
5.4% /
-40.4%
-17.5% /
-15.2%
7.6x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Юнипро
2.759 (+0.7%)
8.6%
2.3% 
12.1% /
23.7%
17.9% /
1.0%
6.6x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Other
АФК Система
28.845 (+2.5%)
1.1%
90.5% 
16.0% /
6.9%
11.5% /
4.0%
4.1x
n/a
..
..
Сегежа
8.571 (+0.7%)
0.0%
18.1% 
36.7% /
112.2%
74.5% /
39.0%
6.7x
..
..
Company
Price and
change
Year div-d yield
FCF Yield LTM
Last growth
Revenue/EBITDA
AVG growth
last/hist
EV /
LTM
EBITDA
(exp)  

(p75)
Express
potential
Next IFRS report
Operating results
State
Башнефть
1416.5 (+0.8%)
0.0%
29.9% 
67.1% /
200.0%
133.6% /
2.2%
4.4x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Газпром
340.59 (+1.6%)
3.7%
8.2% 
77.7% /
200.0%
138.9% /
20.0%
4.4x
..
..
Роснефть
586 (+3.8%)
4.3%
11.3% 
105.0% /
200.0%
152.5% /
11.1%
6.7x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Газпром нефть
455.75 (+2.0%)
3.3%
17.6% 
86.2% /
200.0%
143.1% /
14.4%
4.7x
..
..
Татнефть
505.2 (+2.4%)
5.7%
21.6% 
128.3% /
121.8%
125.1% /
14.0%
4.8x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Алроса
141.47 (+2.1%)
13.0%
15.5% 
200.0% /
0.0%
100.0% /
9.0%
8.1x
..
..
Аэрофлот
67.28 (+0.2%)
0.0%
-11.8% 
200.0% /
0.0%
100.0% /
-0.9%
14.6x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
СовКомФлот
85.68 (+0.3%)
4.3%
-4.0% 
3.5% /
-44.9%
-20.7% /
23.6%
8.0x
n/a            
..
..
Ростелеком
91.05 (+0.8%)
5.5%
1.3% 
8.9% /
15.6%
12.3% /
29.5%
3.6x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
ФСК ЕЭС
0.18998 (-0.1%)
8.5%
2.5% 
8.7% /
3.4%
6.1% /
-3.1%
3.5x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Русгидро
0.8156 (0.0%)
10.9%
4.5% 
-2.1% /
0.0%
-1.1% /
5.2%
5.3x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Интер РАО
4.633 (+2.5%)
3.9%
11.5% 
16.3% /
24.3%
20.3% /
10.4%
1.2x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
МРСК Центра
0.4076 (0.0%)
8.2%
1.4% 
5.3% /
26.5%
15.9% /
3.8%
2.9x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
МРСК ЦП
0.2634 (+0.5%)
9.8%
44.5% 
3.9% /
19.2%
11.6% /
-0.1%
2.7x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
МРСК Сибири
0.292 (-1.0%)
0.0%
-24.1% 
3.7% /
10.0%
6.9% /
11.8%
7.1x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
МРСК Урала
0.163 (-0.4%)
0.0%
-1.6% 
14.2% /
200.0%
107.1% /
21.5%
2.3x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
МРСК Волги
0.0564 (-0.1%)
0.0%
-6.1% 
2.6% /
-27.2%
-12.3% /
-11.1%
3.4x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
МРСК Юга
0.0461 (0.0%)
0.0%
-10.5% 
7.5% /
-64.1%
-28.3% /
-3.1%
6.0x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
МРСК СЗ
0.0564 (+0.7%)
0.0%
20.2% 
1.8% /
67.5%
34.7% /
12.1%
3.2x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Мосэнерго
2.42 (+4.7%)
7.4%
-8.3% 
19.5% /
6.7%
13.1% /
2.5%
2.7x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
ОГК-2
0.6776 (+0.9%)
16.9%
1.0% 
14.0% /
41.4%
27.7% /
3.5%
3.4x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
Россети
1.3007 (+1.5%)
1.9%
-10.3% 
14.4% /
53.3%
33.9% /
0.2%
4.0x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
ТГК-1
0.010982 (-0.2%)
9.8%
2.4% 
14.7% /
22.8%
18.8% /
8.0%
2.6x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
КамАЗ
102.9 (+2.4%)
0.5%
-11.3% 
40.2% /
49.6%
44.9% /
26.6%
8.0x
n/a
n/a            
..
..
НМТП
8.04 (+4.5%)
0.7%
5.2% 
23.8% /
28.7%
26.3% /
-4.2%
5.6x
n/a
n/a            
..
..

Market Attractiveness Index

Market Attractiveness Index calculated as average express-upside for TOP-5 Eastern European commodity companies with highest potential

High values of index (>30%), indicate favorable moments for additional cash contributions to the stock market / stock purchases

Current value of the Index is 92.8%
(good time to start investing)

Target portfolio structure

Company
Price
Change
Potential
Change
Share
Commodity
89.0%
66.2%
+0.7%
12.9%
65.5%
+0.9%
11.7%
241.0%
-0.7%
10.0%
52.5%
+0.1%
9.6%
179.2%
+0.7%
9.4%
33.6%
+1.3%
7.3%
28.9%
-4.5%
7.0%
61.5%
+0.6%
6.4%
52.6%
-1.2%
6.4%
53.6%
0.0%
5.4%
15.2%
-0.1%
2.8%
B2C
to 75% LTM mult
29.5%
131.7%
-5.7%
17.9%
51.4%
-0.2%
6.8%
36.0%
+0.4%
4.8%
 
Download table (CSV)
 

Additional companies on LSE

Company
Price
Change
Potential
Change
83.6%
+1.1%

Currently the portfolio is 80% commodity strategy:
 
The strategy calculates how much profit (on EBITDA level) each company is probably earning at the moment
 
It takes into account real-time changes in market environment (production prices, currencies, etc)
 
The most undervalued companies in terms of multiples of enterprise value and mark-to-market earnings are included into target portfolio
 
Remaining 20% are the most attractive (under our frameworks) B2C companies in terms of financials growth trajectories and valuation combination

Actual Performance (RUB)

Period
Strategy
IMOEX
2015
+121.8%
+26.1%
2016
+54.3%
+26.8%
2017
+25.6%
-5.5%
2018
+29.6%
+12.3%
2019
+13.5%
+29.6%
2020
+21.6%
+8.0%
2021
+29.9%
+22.6%
Annualized
+40.8%
+17.1%
Day
0.0%
+1.5%
Week
+0.2%
-0.3%
Year to date
+29.9%
+22.6%
Since inception
(2015-01-01)
+893.5%
+188.6%

Maximum drawdown 29.7%

Date of drawdown 2020-03-24

Sharpe ratio 1.53

Portfolio and Moscow Exchange Index dynamics (%)

Reviews

2021-09-19
#NKNC

Nizhnekamsknef-m reported for 2021 H1:
- Revenue +73.1% YoY (vs -2.4% in previous half-year and historical rate +9.3%)
- EBITDA +161.6% YoY (vs +15.6% in previous half-year and historical rate +28.4%)
- Net Debt increased by 12.2 bln rubles over the past reporting period (5.2% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) -25.0 bln RUB (negative), 10.7% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.2x compared to historical 75th percentile 6.7x
2021-09-19
#SELG

Seligdar reported for 2021 H1:
- Revenue +9.9% YoY (vs +57.8% in previous half-year and historical rate +42.0%)
- EBITDA +31.7% YoY (vs +55.1% in previous half-year and historical rate +69.2%)
- Net Debt increased by 0.6 bln rubles over the past reporting period (1.6% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) -2.5 bln RUB (negative), 6.7% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.9x compared to historical 75th percentile 6.5x
2021-09-13
#dividend #NKNC

Nizhnekamsknef-m will pay dividends in the amount of 9.538 RUB per share on 2021-09-16, which is 6.1% of the current price 155.5. Together with previous payments, the annual dividend yield will be 6.6%

(2021-04-23: 0.73 RUB)
2021-09-13
#dividend #TRMK

TMK (pipe) will pay dividends in the amount of 17.71 RUB per share on 2021-09-15, which is 14.5% of the current price 121.99. Together with previous payments, the annual dividend yield will be 24.9%

(2021-04-22: 9.67 RUB)
(2020-12-03: 3 RUB)
2021-09-07
#MDMG

MD Medical reported for 2021 H1:
- Revenue +50.6% YoY (vs +33.9% in previous half-year and historical rate +18.7%)
- EBITDA +66.4% YoY (vs +50.4% in previous half-year and historical rate +24.1%)
- Net Debt decreased by 1.1 bln rubles over the past reporting period (1.7% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) -0.1 bln RUB (negative), 0.2% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 9.0x compared to historical 75th percentile 7.6x
2021-09-07
#dividend #AKRN

Acron will pay dividends in the amount of 30 RUB per share on 2021-10-07, which is 0.5% of the current price 6522. Together with previous payments, the annual dividend yield will be 0.9%

(2021-06-04: 30 RUB)
2021-09-07
#dividend #MDMG

MD Medical will pay dividends in the amount of 18 RUB per share on 2021-09-22, which is 2.1% of the current price 876.2. Together with previous payments, the annual dividend yield will be 4.2%

(2021-05-03: 19 RUB)
2021-09-05
#AFLT

Aeroflot reported for 2021 q2:
- Revenue +370.0% YoY (vs -39.1% in previous quarter and historical rate +2.4%)
- EBITDA + >200% YoY (vs -40.9% in previous quarter and historical rate -4.1%)
- Net Debt decreased by 6.1 bln rubles over the past reporting period (3.6% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) -19.4 bln RUB (negative), 11.5% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 14.7x compared to historical 75th percentile 15.8x
2021-09-05
#FEES

FGC UES reported for 2021 q2:
- Revenue +8.7% YoY (vs +5.6% in previous quarter and historical rate -1.0%)
- EBITDA +3.4% YoY (vs +2.9% in previous quarter and historical rate -5.2%)
- Net Debt decreased by 23.6 bln rubles over the past reporting period (9.2% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) +5.9 bln RUB (positive), 2.3% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.7x compared to historical 75th percentile 3.5x
2021-09-05
#GLTR

Globaltrans reported for 2021 H1:
- Revenue -9.4% YoY (vs -31.0% in previous half-year and historical rate -6.3%)
- EBITDA -28.0% YoY (vs -38.4% in previous half-year and historical rate -6.1%)
- Net Debt increased by 0.9 bln rubles over the past reporting period (0.9% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) -17.5 bln RUB (negative), 16.9% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.0x compared to historical 75th percentile 4.5x
2021-09-05
#KMAZ

Kamaz reported for 2021 H1:
- Revenue +40.2% YoY (vs +14.0% in previous half-year and historical rate +13.8%)
- EBITDA +49.6% YoY (vs +40.0% in previous half-year and historical rate +39.4%)
- Net Debt increased by 12.4 bln rubles over the past reporting period (15.5% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) -8.2 bln RUB (negative), 10.3% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 8.4x compared to historical 75th percentile 14.3x
2021-09-05
#LSRG

LSR Group reported for 2021 H1:
- Revenue +14.0% YoY (vs +9.6% in previous half-year and historical rate -3.1%)
- EBITDA +62.3% YoY (vs +44.6% in previous half-year and historical rate +12.4%)
- Net Debt increased by 30.8 bln rubles over the past reporting period (38.6% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) -25.0 bln RUB (negative), 31.3% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.7x compared to historical 75th percentile 5.3x
2021-09-05
#MRKU

IDGC Ural reported for 2021 q2:
- Revenue +14.2% YoY (vs +7.4% in previous quarter and historical rate +6.3%)
- EBITDA +363.4% YoY (vs +17.2% in previous quarter and historical rate +36.7%)
- Net Debt decreased by 0.7 bln rubles over the past reporting period (5.1% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) -0.2 bln RUB (negative), 1.7% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 2.3x compared to historical 75th percentile 3.3x
2021-09-05
#PIKK

PIK Group reported for 2021 H1:
- Revenue +36.6% YoY (vs +36.5% in previous half-year and historical rate +24.1%)
- EBITDA +47.6% YoY (vs +38.0% in previous half-year and historical rate +70.8%)
- Net Debt increased by 145.3 bln rubles over the past reporting period (15.8% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) -137.9 bln RUB (negative), 15.0% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 11.6x compared to historical 75th percentile 8.4x
2021-09-05
#POGR

Petropavlovsk reported for 2021 H1:
- Revenue -28.2% YoY (vs +24.7% in previous half-year and historical rate +29.8%)
- EBITDA -32.9% YoY (vs -12.8% in previous half-year and historical rate +86.3%)
- Net Debt increased by 3.3 bln rubles over the past reporting period (3.7% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) -1.1 bln RUB (negative), 1.2% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.1x compared to historical 75th percentile 6.0x
2021-09-05
#RSTI

Rosseti reported for 2021 q2:
- Revenue +14.4% YoY (vs +9.0% in previous quarter and historical rate +2.2%)
- EBITDA +53.3% YoY (vs +5.8% in previous quarter and historical rate -1.8%)
- Net Debt decreased by 35.0 bln rubles over the past reporting period (12.3% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) -27.1 bln RUB (negative), 9.5% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.0x compared to historical 75th percentile 4.3x
2021-09-05
#VEON

VEON reported for 2021 q2:
- Revenue +11.9% YoY (vs +5.5% in previous quarter and historical rate +3.2%)
- EBITDA +12.3% YoY (vs +6.0% in previous quarter and historical rate +9.8%)
- Net Debt decreased by 6.3 bln rubles over the past reporting period (2.4% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) +0.5 bln RUB (positive), 0.2% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.8x compared to historical 75th percentile 3.8x
2021-09-02
#GAZP

Gazprom reported for 2021 q2:
- Revenue +77.7% YoY (vs +31.3% in previous quarter and historical rate +5.8%)
- EBITDA +417.2% YoY (vs +91.9% in previous quarter and historical rate +34.2%)
- Net Debt decreased by 339.5 bln rubles over the past reporting period (4.7% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) +628.1 bln RUB (positive), 8.7% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.1x compared to historical 75th percentile 5.9x
2021-09-02
#NMTP

NMTP reported for 2021 q2:
- Revenue +23.8% YoY (vs -3.7% in previous quarter and historical rate -3.4%)
- EBITDA +28.7% YoY (vs -4.0% in previous quarter and historical rate -4.9%)
- Net Debt decreased by 10.6 bln rubles over the past reporting period (6.9% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) +8.1 bln RUB (positive), 5.3% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 5.7x compared to historical 75th percentile 6.4x
2021-08-31
#AFKS

Sistema reported for 2021 q2:
- Revenue +16.0% YoY (vs +8.0% in previous quarter and historical rate +1.3%)
- EBITDA +6.9% YoY (vs +6.1% in previous quarter and historical rate +6.6%)
- Net Debt decreased by 42.5 bln rubles over the past reporting period (14.8% of capitalisation)
- FCF (LTM) +251.9 bln RUB (positive), 88.0% of capitalisation
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.1x compared to historical 75th percentile 4.8x
2021-08-31
#dividend #ALRS

Alrosa will pay dividends in the amount of 8.79 RUB per share on 2021-10-15, which is 6.1% of the current price 144.57. Together with previous payments, the annual dividend yield will be 12.7%

(2021-07-01: 9.54 RUB)