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Eastern European companies

Eastern European companies — Screener  (at USDRUB exchange rate: 69.46)

Oil & Gas
Metallurgy
Mining
Chemistry
Food & Agro
Retail
Food & Agro
Transportation
Coal
Retail
IT
Banking
P/E:
Telecom
Building
Energy
Other
State

Market Attractiveness Index

chart technology by TradingView

Market Attractiveness Index calculated as average express-upside for TOP-5 Eastern European commodity companies with highest potential

High values of index (>30%), indicate favorable moments for additional cash contributions to the stock market / stock purchases

Current value of the Index is 214.0%
(good time to start investing)

Target portfolio structure

Company
Price
Share
Commodity
1.6%
26.7%
2.5%
-13.5%
-14.2%
B2C
50.1%
30.1%
10.0%
10.0%
Currency and futures
CRH3 CNY futures
10319
147.7%
RUB
-115.7%
GLDRUB
4253.13
12.6%
HKDRUB
8.87
3.7%

Top daily rises and falls

Company Ticker Price Change
 
IDGC North West MRKZ 0.0314 +5.0%
Mechel MTLR 114.49 +4.1%
OKEY OKEY 27.14 +3.6%
Raspadskaya RASP 254.1 +3.6%
Rushydro HYDR 0.7771 +2.7%
Globaltrans GLTR 307.9 +2.5%
OZON OZON 1660.5 +2.5%
Nornickel GMKN 15014 +2.1%
Unipro UPRO 1.428 +2.0%
Rusal RUAL 42.2 +1.9%
 
Nizhnekamsknef-m NKNC 99.45 -3.1%
Fix Price FIXP 362.4 -1.4%
IDGC Siberia MRKS 0.306 -1.3%
IDGC Center MRKC 0.2884 -1.0%
IDGC Center & Volga MRKP 0.2088 -0.9%
Tattelecom TTLK 0.5495 -0.9%
IDGC Ural MRKU 0.1792 -0.9%
KuybyshevAzot PAO KAZT 490.8 -0.7%
Kamaz KMAZ 89.6 -0.6%
Beluga BELU 2825 -0.5%

Currently the portfolio is 80% commodity strategy:
 
The strategy calculates how much profit (on EBITDA level) each company is probably earning at the moment
 
It takes into account real-time changes in market environment (production prices, currencies, etc)
 
The most undervalued companies in terms of multiples of enterprise value and mark-to-market earnings are included into target portfolio
 
Remaining 20% are the most attractive (under our frameworks) B2C companies in terms of financials growth trajectories and valuation combination

Actual Performance (RUB)

Period
Strategy
IMOEX
2015
+121.8%
+26.1%
2016
+54.3%
+26.8%
2017
+25.6%
-5.5%
2018
+29.6%
+12.3%
2019
+13.5%
+29.6%
2020
+21.6%
+8.0%
2021
+44.2%
+15.1%
2022
-20.2%
-43.1%
2023
+6.3%
+1.6%
Annualized
+32.0%
+5.7%
Day
+0.3%
+1.0%
Week
+1.9%
+1.0%
Year to date
+6.3%
+1.6%
Since inception
(2015-01-01)
+831.5%
+56.8%

Maximum drawdown 37.8%

Date of drawdown 2022-02-24

Sharpe ratio 1.03

Volatility (year) 102%

Portfolio and Moscow Exchange Index dynamics (%)

Reviews

2022-12-16
#AFKS #reports

Sistema reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +9.2% YoY (vs +18.8% in previous quarter and historical rate +9.6%)
- EBITDA -9.2% YoY (vs +46.6% in previous quarter and historical rate +4.5%)
- EBITDA margin 29.3% decreased compared to 35.2% same period last year
- Net Debt decreased by 11.2 bln rubles over the past reporting period (9.7% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) -187.2 bln RUB (negative), 162.8% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.7x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 4.9x

2022-12-09
#SGZH #reports

Segezha Group reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue -6.1% YoY (vs +13.2% in previous quarter and historical rate +28.3%)
- EBITDA -69.9% YoY (vs -26.9% in previous quarter and historical rate +49.4%)
- EBITDA margin 10.7% decreased compared to 33.4% same period last year
- Net Debt increased by 2.3 bln rubles over the past reporting period (3.1% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) -54.4 bln RUB (negative), 74.7% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.9x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 7.9x

2022-11-23
#TCSG #reports

Tinkoff reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +12.8% YoY (vs +5.9% in previous quarter and historical rate +31.3%)
- Net Income -64.3% YoY (vs -81.4% in previous quarter and historical rate +6.0%)
- Net Income 9.1% decreased compared to 28.9% same period last year
- P/E multiple is 20.4x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 9.8x

2022-11-19
#QIWI #reports

QIWI reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +10.3% YoY (vs +29.6% in previous quarter and historical rate +6.8%)
- Net Income +47.0% YoY (vs +79.7% in previous quarter and historical rate +36.6%)
- Net Income 43.4% increased compared to 32.5% same period last year
- P/E multiple is 1.5x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 3.3x

2022-11-17
#MTSS #reports

MTS reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +0.8% YoY (vs +0.6% in previous quarter and historical rate +2.5%)
- EBITDA -1.3% YoY (vs -9.3% in previous quarter and historical rate +2.1%)
- EBITDA margin 43.9% decreased compared to 44.8% same period last year
- Net Debt decreased by 4.2 bln rubles over the past reporting period (0.9% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) +48.3 bln RUB (positive), 10.3% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.9x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 4.5x

2022-11-15
#HHRU #reports

Head Hunter reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +1.1% YoY (vs +1.1% in previous quarter and historical rate +41.1%)
- EBITDA -10.4% YoY (vs -34.8% in previous quarter and historical rate +44.6%)
- EBITDA margin 50.8% decreased compared to 57.3% same period last year
- Net Debt decreased by 2.0 bln rubles over the past reporting period (3.0% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) +5.5 bln RUB (positive), 8.2% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 9.0x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 27.8x

2022-11-15
#OZON #reports

OZON reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +48.0% YoY (vs +58.1% in previous quarter and historical rate +69.9%)
- EBITDA margin -18.9% increased compared to -34.3% same period last year
- Net Debt decreased by 0.8 bln rubles over the past reporting period (0.3% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) -78.2 bln RUB (negative), 29.6% of market cap
2022-11-14
#AGRO #reports

Rusagro reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +3.0% YoY (vs +20.7% in previous quarter and historical rate +23.3%)
- EBITDA -39.4% YoY (vs +24.6% in previous quarter and historical rate +42.3%)
- EBITDA margin 9.5% decreased compared to 16.2% same period last year
- Net Debt increased by 5.5 bln rubles over the past reporting period (5.2% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) -35.0 bln RUB (negative), 32.7% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.0x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 5.5x

2022-11-10
#VKCO #reports

VK company reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +6.6% YoY (vs +3.9% in previous quarter and historical rate +16.4%)
- EBITDA +16.4% YoY (vs -36.9% in previous quarter and historical rate +6.0%)
- EBITDA margin 30.6% increased compared to 28.0% same period last year
- Net Debt decreased by 0.3 bln rubles over the past reporting period (0.3% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) -18.7 bln RUB (negative), 17.8% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.1x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 11.5x

2022-11-07
#PHOR #reports

Phosagro reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +5.7% YoY (vs +89.7% in previous quarter and historical rate +37.9%)
- EBITDA +0.1% YoY (vs +108.5% in previous quarter and historical rate +66.1%)
- EBITDA margin 46.5% decreased compared to 49.1% same period last year
- Net Debt decreased by 28.2 bln rubles over the past reporting period (3.3% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) +136.2 bln RUB (positive), 15.9% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.1x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 7.3x

2022-11-04
#YNDX #reports

Yandex reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +45.8% YoY (vs +44.7% in previous quarter and historical rate +43.8%)
- EBITDA +3949.9% YoY (vs +1692.9% in previous quarter and historical rate -5.9%)
- EBITDA margin 13.7% increased compared to 0.5% same period last year
- Net Debt decreased by 22.4 bln rubles over the past reporting period (3.2% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) +23.3 bln RUB (positive), 3.4% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 20.8x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 42.3x

2022-11-03
#MOEX #reports

MOEX reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +21.1% YoY (vs +22.1% in previous quarter and historical rate +15.4%)
- Net Income +29.4% YoY (vs +18.9% in previous quarter and historical rate +20.8%)
- Net Income 53.8% increased compared to 50.4% same period last year
- P/E multiple is 5.8x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 12.8x

2022-10-27
#FIXP #reports

Fix Price reported for 2022 H1:
- Revenue +24.2% YoY (vs +16.0% in previous half-year and historical rate +26.1%)
- EBITDA +37.5% YoY (vs +17.1% in previous half-year and historical rate +28.0%)
- EBITDA margin 15.6% increased compared to 14.1% same period last year
- Net Debt increased by 7.8 bln rubles over the past reporting period (2.5% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) -0.1 bln RUB (negative), 0.0% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 8.4x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 11.4x

2022-10-25
#FIVE #reports

X5 Retail Group reported for 2022 q3:
- Revenue +19.2% YoY (vs +18.6% in previous quarter and historical rate +14.1%)
- EBITDA +13.6% YoY (vs +39.7% in previous quarter and historical rate +15.8%)
- EBITDA margin 7.3% decreased compared to 7.7% same period last year
- Net Debt decreased by 36.2 bln rubles over the past reporting period (8.3% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) +80.8 bln RUB (positive), 18.5% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.2x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 6.1x

2022-09-27
#ETLN #reports

Etalon reported for 2022 H1:
- Revenue -17.9% YoY (vs -1.1% in previous half-year and historical rate +3.4%)
- EBITDA +163.9% YoY (vs -12.8% in previous half-year and historical rate +103.3%)
- EBITDA margin 54.0% increased compared to 16.8% same period last year
- Net Debt increased by 18.7 bln rubles over the past reporting period (107.1% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) -38.1 bln RUB (negative), 218.3% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.4x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 5.0x

2022-09-27
#PIKK #reports

PIK Group reported for 2021 H2:
- Revenue +23.5% YoY (vs +36.6% in previous half-year and historical rate +25.3%)
- EBITDA -16.5% YoY (vs +47.6% in previous half-year and historical rate +37.9%)
- EBITDA margin 18.5% decreased compared to 27.3% same period last year
- Net Debt increased by 35.4 bln rubles over the past reporting period (10.3% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) -151.1 bln RUB (negative), 44.1% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 7.3x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 7.4x

2022-09-22
#PLZL #reports

Polyus reported for 2022 q1:
- Revenue -22.1% YoY (vs -6.4% in previous quarter and historical rate +19.5%)
- EBITDA -24.4% YoY (vs -8.8% in previous quarter and historical rate +23.4%)
- EBITDA margin 65.6% decreased compared to 67.6% same period last year
- Net Debt decreased by 19.0 bln rubles over the past reporting period (1.9% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) +62.9 bln RUB (positive), 6.5% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.9x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 9.6x

2022-09-22
#POLY #reports

Polymetal reported for 2022 H1:
- Revenue -14.3% YoY (vs -9.0% in previous half-year and historical rate +15.9%)
- EBITDA -32.8% YoY (vs -8.0% in previous half-year and historical rate +29.1%)
- EBITDA margin 40.6% decreased compared to 51.8% same period last year
- Net Debt increased by 19.0 bln rubles over the past reporting period (13.7% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) +11.6 bln RUB (positive), 8.3% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 2.7x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 7.3x

2022-09-21
# #reports

--- reported for 2022 q2:
- Revenue +7167900.0% YoY (vs +445100.0% in previous quarter and historical rate 0.0%)
- EBITDA margin 65.6% increased compared to 0.0% same period last year
- Net Debt increased by 123.0 bln rubles over the past reporting period (0.0% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) -120.6 bln RUB (negative), 0.0% of market cap
2022-09-21
#PLZL #reports

Polyus reported for 2022 q2:
- Revenue -22.1% YoY (vs -6.4% in previous quarter and historical rate +19.5%)
- EBITDA -24.4% YoY (vs -8.8% in previous quarter and historical rate +23.4%)
- EBITDA margin 65.6% decreased compared to 67.6% same period last year
- Net Debt decreased by 19.0 bln rubles over the past reporting period (2.0% of market cap)
- FCF (LTM) +62.9 bln RUB (positive), 6.6% of market cap
- EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.8x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 9.6x

2022-09-19
#MOEX #reports

MOEX reported for 2022 q2:
- Revenue +22.1% YoY (vs +29.6% in previous quarter and historical rate +14.4%)
- Net Income +18.9% YoY (vs +18.5% in previous quarter and historical rate +18.9%)
- Net Income 51.4% decreased compared to 52.8% same period last year
- P/E multiple is 7.0x compared to historical level (50th percentile) of 12.8x