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General information
Amgen Inc. is an independent biotechnology medicines company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets medicines for grievous illnesses. The Company focuses solely on human therapeutics and concentrates on innovating novel medicines based on advances in cellular and molecular biology.
  • Bad financial results growth rate -13.9% (average between last period year over year growth for revenue and EBITDA), there is slowdown compared to average historical growth rates (-0.1%)
  • Dividend yield for the last twelve months 3.0%
  • Free cash flow yield -5.5% (LTM)
  • Share price is 30.3% higher than minimum and 17.1% lower than maximum for the last 3 years
  • The company is overvalued by EV / LTM EBITDA multiple compared to target level (13.5x vs 12.6x)
  • Fundamental value created in LTM (estimate) -72.7%
Key Financials
Ticker: AMGN
Share price, USD: 216.38
Common stocks: 594 183 541

Dividend Yield:  3.0%
FCF Yield LTM: -5.5%
EV / LTM EBITDA: 13.5x
Last revenue growth (y/y):  12.0%
Last growth of EBITDA (y/y):  -39.8%
Historical revenue growth:  2.9%
Historical growth of EBITDA:  -3.1%
Target EV / EBITDA (hist 75% percentile): 12.6x
Fundamental value created in LTM: -72.7%
EV / LTM EBITDA mutiple calculation
Market Cap ($m): 128 569
Net Debt ($m): 21 836
EV (Enterprise Value): 150 405
EBITDA LTM ($m): 11 124
EV / LTM EBITDA: 13.5x

Revenue and EBITDA

Quarterly values ($m)

Change (y/y)

Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow ($m)

Net Debt / Cash and Equivalents ($m)

Share price and dividends

Share price

Payment USD per share

Multiple and potential

EV / LTM EBITDA and 75% percentile

Potential dynamics

Value Creation

Fundamental Value Creation is calculated as ratio of value created in the last period to current market cap of the company.

The fundamental value can be created in two ways:
• cash generation in form of dividend payments or debt reduction or share buybacks
growth of the company enterprise value through improving financial results

The growth of enterprise value in the last period is estimated as product of:
• annualized increase of EBITDA in the last reporting period year over year
• relevant EV/EBITDA multiple (average between actual EV/EBITDA for the company and average general level of 10.0x is applied)

Parameter
#
Formula
Value
    
    
            EBITDA (pre LTM Q)
(1)
3 026
            EBITDA (last Q)
(2)
1 822
            EBITDA LTM
(3)
11 124
    
    
        EBITDA LTM / last Q
(4)
(3) / (2)
6.105
    Gain of EBITDA (mln $)
(5)
( (2)-(1) ) * (4)
-7 351
    
    
            EV
(6)
150 405
        Mult
(7)
(6) / (3)
13.5x
        Mult common
(8)
const
10.0x
    Mult avg
(9)
avgerage
11.8x
    
    
    Equity+
(10)
(5) * (9)
-86 449
    FCF LTM
(11)
-7 055
    
    
Value+
(12)
(10) + (11)
-93 504
Cap
(13)
128 569
    
    
Fundamental value creation
(14)
(12) / (13)
-72.7%

Potential

EBITDA LTM       11 124
 
EBITDA E       10 769
Mult aim       12.6x
 
EV E       135 619
NetDebt corr       22 397
 
Cap E       113 223
Cap       128 569
Growth potential            -11.9%