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General information
McDonald"s Corporation franchises and operates fast-food restaurants in the global restaurant industry. The Company"s restaurants serves a variety of value-priced menu products in countries around the world.
  • Bad financial results growth rate -42.3% (average between last period year over year growth for revenue and EBITDA), there is slowdown compared to average historical growth rates (-2.7%)
  • Dividend yield for the last twelve months 2.3%
  • Free cash flow yield 2.2% (LTM)
  • Share price is 56.4% higher than minimum and 6.5% lower than maximum for the last 3 years
  • The company is overvalued by EV / LTM EBITDA multiple compared to target level (21.2x vs 17.6x)
  • Fundamental value created in LTM (estimate) -114.1%
Key Financials
Ticker: MCD
Share price, USD: 214.69
Common stocks: 753 093 326

Dividend Yield:  2.3%
FCF Yield LTM: 2.2%
EV / LTM EBITDA: 21.2x
Last revenue growth (y/y):  -29.6%
Last growth of EBITDA (y/y):  -55.0%
Historical revenue growth:  -7.2%
Historical growth of EBITDA:  1.9%
Target EV / EBITDA (hist 75% percentile): 17.6x
Fundamental value created in LTM: -100.0%
EV / LTM EBITDA mutiple calculation
Market Cap ($m): 161 682
Net Debt ($m): 46 932
EV (Enterprise Value): 208 614
EBITDA LTM ($m): 9 837
EV / LTM EBITDA: 21.2x

Revenue and EBITDA

Quarterly values ($m)

Change (y/y)

Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow ($m)

Net Debt / Cash and Equivalents ($m)

Share price and dividends

Share price

Payment USD per share

Multiple and potential

EV / LTM EBITDA and 75% percentile

Potential dynamics

Value Creation

Fundamental Value Creation is calculated as ratio of value created in the last period to current market cap of the company.

The fundamental value can be created in two ways:
• cash generation in form of dividend payments or debt reduction or share buybacks
growth of the company enterprise value through improving financial results

The growth of enterprise value in the last period is estimated as product of:
• annualized increase of EBITDA in the last reporting period year over year
• relevant EV/EBITDA multiple (average between actual EV/EBITDA for the company and average general level of 10.0x is applied)

Parameter
#
Formula
Value
    
    
            EBITDA (pre LTM Q)
(1)
3 070
            EBITDA (last Q)
(2)
1 382
            EBITDA LTM
(3)
9 837
    
    
        EBITDA LTM / last Q
(4)
(3) / (2)
7.118
    Gain of EBITDA (mln $)
(5)
( (2)-(1) ) * (4)
-12 015
    
    
            EV
(6)
209 555
        Mult
(7)
(6) / (3)
21.3x
        Mult common
(8)
const
10.0x
    Mult avg
(9)
avgerage
15.7x
    
    
    Equity+
(10)
(5) * (9)
-188 053
    FCF LTM
(11)
3 585
    
    
Value+
(12)
(10) + (11)
-184 468
Cap
(13)
161 682
    
    
Fundamental value creation
(14)
(12) / (13)
-100.0%

Potential

EBITDA LTM       9 837
 
EBITDA E       7 476
Mult aim       17.6x
 
EV E       131 802
NetDebt corr       46 685
 
Cap E       85 117
Cap       161 682
Growth potential            -47.4%