Dividends prediction

Дивидендная политика Северстали (апрель 2018): при соотношении чистый долг/EBITDA 0,5х-1х компания выплачивает дивиденды в размере 100% свободного денежного потока. Если соотношение будет ниже, то, возможно, более 100%, если выше - 50%.

Див. политика взята с сайта dohod.ru

CHMF (карточка)	Div on share	Share price	Dividend yield	Amount of shares	RUB to be paid	(RUB)net_income	% to be paid	Target Price	Potential
2019	115.88	894.00	13.0%	837.7 млн.	97.1 млрд.	114.3 млрд.	85.0%
2020	116.30	1617.80	7.2%	837.7 млн.	97.4 млрд.	74.6 млрд.	100.0%
2021	217.15	821.40	26.4%	837.7 млн.	181.9 млрд.	299.6 млрд.	60.7%
2023	191.51	1523.20	12.6%	837.7 млн.	160.4 млрд.	135.4 млрд.	100.0%
2024	118.42	1010.20	11.7%	837.7 млн.	99.2 млрд.	149.6 млрд.	66.3%
(E) 2025	72.28	1041.20	6.9%	837.7 млн.	60.6 млрд.	73.5 млрд.	82.4%	330.4	-68.3%

Детали R4 в csv
Детали R7 в csv

Potential calculation 2025

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Rate	Variable	Formula	Meaning
Current stock price	R1		1 041.20 р.
Amount of shares	R2		837.72 млн шт
Average historical % to be paid	R3		82.4%
Predicted value:	R4		73 млрд р.
Intermediate calculations
Predicted sum to be paid	R5	R3 * R4	61 млрд р.
Predicted dividend on share	R6	max(R8, R5 / R2)	72.28 р.
Target historical dividend yield	R7		21.9%
Dividend per share already paid in forecast year	R8		72.28 р.
Result
Expected dividend yield at current price	R9	R6 / R1	+6.9%
Target share price	R10	R6 / R7 + (R6 - R8) / 2	330.36 р.
Growth potential	R11	min(2, R10 / R1 - 1)	-68.3%

Dividend yield dynamics

Site-based reference data закрытия-реестров.рф

2020	DIV
2020-07-23	15.44
2020-10-22	37.34

2021	DIV
2021-02-04	36.27
2021-04-16	46.77
2021-07-16	84.45
2021-10-18	85.93

2024	DIV
2024-02-02	191.51
2024-04-23	38.30
2024-07-22	31.06
2024-10-21	49.06

Enhanced Investments, Inc.
329 South Oyster Bay Road #2085
Plainview, NY 11803
team@eninvs.com

Important disclosures

Performance results were prepared by Enhanced Investments, and have not been compiled, reviewed or audited by an independent accountant. Performance estimates are subject to future adjustment and revision. Investors should be aware that a loss of investment is possible. Account holdings are for illustrative purposes only and are not investment recommendations. Additional information, including (i) the calculation methodology; and (ii) a list showing the contribution of each holding to the portfolio’s performance during the time period will be provided upon request.
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Certain investments are not suitable for all investors. Before investing, consider your investment objectives and applicable fees. The rate of return on investments can vary widely over time, especially for long term investments. Investment losses are possible, including the potential loss of all amounts invested. Information provided by Enhanced Investments is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice.

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Performance results were prepared by Enhanced Investments, and have not been compiled, reviewed or audited by an independent accountant. Performance estimates are subject to future adjustment and revision. Investors should be aware that a loss of investment is possible. Account holdings are for illustrative purposes only and are not investment recommendations. Additional information, including (i) the calculation methodology; and (ii) a list showing the contribution of each holding to the portfolio’s performance during the time period will be provided upon request.
All statements made via social media sites sponsored or maintained by Enhanced Investments and its affiliates are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a comprehensive description of Enhanced Investments' investment advisory services.
Certain investments are not suitable for all investors. Before investing, consider your investment objectives and applicable fees. The rate of return on investments can vary widely over time, especially for long term investments. Investment losses are possible, including the potential loss of all amounts invested. Information provided by Enhanced Investments is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice.